The Fall Guy

Let me say at the outset that I am not a supporter of Shinzo Abe or his policies (anyone who puts nationalistic pride before much-needed reforms to the country's social welfare system gets an black mark in my book), but I wanted to say a few things about recent events in the Diet over the past two days. The prime minister of Japan stepped down Tuesday as he sought to find a "responsible" way to resolve the public distrust that has surrounded his one-year tenure.

Abe took office September 26, 2006, as the youngest prime minister since the war, calling for what he termed a departure from the post-war regime and advocating revision of the war-renouncing constitution. He quickly managed to thaw Japan's icy ties with China and South Korea by visiting the two countries immediately after taking office. Since then, however, he has witnessed a string of money scandals and gaffes involving members of his cabinet, as well as the fiasco over public pension records. (The Japan Times) (On a side note, the pension fiasco had very little to do with Abe, actually, and can be blamed on his predecessors – PM Junichiro Koizumi et al – for failing to manage the bureaucratic process properly)

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and it is with hindsight that we are able to look at the events of the past two days in a wider perspective. Think back, for example, to when Abe won the Liberal Democratic Party presidential vote. At that time, almost one year ago today, Abe basically won the LDP election by default. The other two candidates in the party election – Taro Aso and Sadakazu Tanagaki – showed a lack of interest in the post and Abe won convincingly with 66 percent of the party vote.

But recent events have made me wonder if Abe was ever expected to be anything more than a stop-gap measure, a move that would give the LDP time to find a more permanent successor. Japanese politicians are well-known for their melodramas and the 2006 appointment of Abe in the PM post now seems part of a long-term plan to use him as a sacrificial lamb that would eventually step aside to accommodate a political candidate of true blue LDP stock (as Abe himself was anything but, despite his rich political heritage).

Abe's surprise announcement on Tuesday seemed at face value to come from a man who was at the end of his tether. He had battled long and hard for his reforms to be accepted, but was always kept on the back foot by a Japanese media that systematically unveiled one financial scandal after another with monotonous regularity. At this point, it should be noted that many of the cabinet ministers embroiled in dodgy administrative practices had been involved in parliamentary duties for many years (most of them were part of Koizumi's government) and yet it was only now that they got caught with their fingers in the pie. Something smell fishy? Sounds like someone was given a helping hand with where to look...

And as if that weren't enough, news broke today that the LDP was going to vote on Abe's successor on September 19 – one week from the date he resigned. If the news was as much of a shock as everyone in the party made out (weeping in front of the camera etc), one week seems like an awfully short time in the Japanese scheme of things to give potential candidates time to sound out possible allies etc. Meetings in Japan can take days to arrange, let alone hold, and while this is an emergency, the impending vote seems orchestrated to vote in a candidate who has probably been groomed for the job all along. Again, it suggests the powers that be in the LDP have known for some time that Abe was going to be replaced. It was just a question of arranging the circumstances in such a way that would allow Abe to resign from his post with dignity.

Such circumstances apparently arose after the recent APEC summit in Australia. There, Abe allegedly promised US president George Bush that he would ensure the anti-terrorism bill that is currently before the Diet would be passed without a hitch, thereby guaranteeing that Japan would extend the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean to continue Japan's support for NATO-led counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan. And let's face it, Japan doesn't really have a choice in the matter. The US has put a great deal of pressure on Japan to honour its commitments in the "war on terror", and Abe seems to have come away from the summit with little option than to try to hammer out a cooperation agreement with Ichiro Ozawa, leader of the Democratic Party of Japan, the country's main opposition party (which controls the Upper House).

Official reports says Ozawa refused to meet with Abe (it was the straw that broke the camel's back and forced Abe to tender his resignation), but word on the grape vine in the halls of Nagatacho is that the DPJ actually agreed to Abe's request on one condition – that Abe himself would resign as prime minister. Under the proposal, the DPJ would of course pretend to object to the extension of the MSDF mission, but pledged to let it slip through in the second reading if Abe stepped down.

There are several other rumours in circulation regarding Abe's resignation (poor health, embezzlement etc), but whatever happens from this point on, I would call on the Japanese electorate to think a lot more about the issues at stake than the personalities involved. The cult of personality can only stretch so far.